Running Out ?

Nashua, NH City Hall

Things are the same in Nashua, NH, as in other parts of the U.S. and the world. The city is shut down with closures to schools, restaurants, library, senior center, city offices, and city hall. City officials are discouraging public gatherings of over 25 people. 

At our mill apartment residence, the management office, gym facilities, pool and function room are closed. Office and maintenance staffs can be contacted by phone.

Shopping in local supermarkets has been quite adventuresome. Many items like paper, canned goods and baking supplies are out of stock. (Is everyone baking bread, cookies or cake?). And, many folks, myself included, are wondering, if there are closets stocked with toilet paper (TP). 

The run on TP has been called unusual by industry specialists; social scientists say that stockpiling isn't an uncommon response from fear of running out and fear of the unknown.

Unlike other products, TP is not likely to be used more by those stricken with respiratory symptoms, even as the coronavirus spreads. The need for TP isn't expected to increase as people adjust to closures, canceled events and interruptions to daily life.

If TP was in short supply, stockpiling could be understood. Curious if there is indeed a risk to the nation’s TP supply, I looked online for answers (and reassurance).

The short answer is no, according to a Harvard Business School professor who studies manufacturing supply chains and calls TP supplies too steady. According to him, typical demand for the product is flat proportional to the population — unlike other products, there's no hot season for TP. 

Factories operate to produce a constant stream of product, without allowances for increase or decrease. So, when the constant supply meets a demand spike, shelves get emptied. TP products differ from products like hand sanitizer and coronavirus test kits, where increased use means that there is a genuine risk of shortages.

According to both retailers and manufacturers, the TP demand surge should subside and supply increase as companies keep producing it. Most TP sold in the U.S. is made in North America. So while it's expected that more rolls show up soon, many shelves remain empty.

While this current TP shortage isn't remotely related to this scene from the 1947 Frank Capra film, It's a Wonderful Life, I thought about it anyway this week. My mind works in very strange ways at times all the time (just ask Grenville). 

In this scene, actor Jimmy Stewart as George Bailey uses his honeymoon funds to keep the Bailey Building and Loan, a small community bank, in operation and forestall a bank run when customers clamor to withdraw all their funds.

The money's not here, George explains that was used to help neighbors and he convinces folks to take only what they need for the short term, not all their money. Today, it's not George Bailey, but the 1933 U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) that insures bank deposits so people won't pull cash out in panic, leading to a bank failing.

Years ago, bank run(s) happened often, especially during the Great Depression (1929 to late 1930s) when people rushed to pull money from their banks. More than one-third of U.S. banks failed before the FDIC was created to restore trust in the banking system. 

If there was only a federal act to restore TP to store shelves — everyone would be happy.

Update: After posting earlier today, I walked downtown to the local CVS retail pharmacy (as mentioned, our gym is closed). There was a scant supply of TP products on the shelves. The store manager told me there had been an overnight delivery and that some folks were ripping boxes open in the wee morning hours. My purpose, other than exercise, was to pick up several other items; I also included the 2-package limit (just in case). 

Nashua CVS store shelf at 9 a.m. today and my purchase

While shopping, I witnessed a woman at the register who had a cart filled with the remaining TP supply. The manager explained there was a limit and returned packages to the shelf.

Returning home, Grenville was very glad I went for a walk and not because of the TP acquisition. A local bagel store is open for take-out orders and he'd requested an "everything" bagel. Of course, I also selected one for myself, a cheese one. 

Now we're going to spread them with cream cheese and enjoy with a hot cup of coffee.

If you lived closer, you'd be more than welcome to join us. But. as we would have to keep a respectable social distance, we'll delay off that invite for a few weeks. 

Stay safe and well, everyone. Enjoy watching (or re-watching) some classic films, like the one mentioned here. They can be a lot of fun and oddly relevant.

Life is like a role of TP. The closer it gets to the end, the faster it seems to go.