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Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Phil Got It Wrong

In early February, one of the nation's best known weather prognosticators (someone who predicts the future) foretold an early spring this year. 

Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil made that prediction on February 2 in Gobbler's Knob, PA. According to legend, if Phil sees his shadow it's a sign of six more weeks of bad weather. If it's cloudy, and there's no shadow, then winter will end early. Phil, most likely, wasn't thinking about New England weather.

This was the view outside our Nashua, NH, window late Monday afternoon.


Admittedly, Phil's predictions are not always accurate, even though he's reputed to have been in the weather forecasting business for over 125 years. You would think he had this down by now.

Granted, it's a tough task when trying to predict the weather in a nation with varying regional climates. In the past 10 years, it's estimated that Phil predicted a longer winter 7 times and an early spring 3 times which gives him a 40% accuracy rate.


But, remember, we're talking about a groundhog. Even the National Weather Service doesn't get the weather right many times. And, isn't it easier to blame a groundhog for the weather, instead of a trained weather forecaster?

Good news, yesterday's snowfall won't stick around long. But, it was annoying to residents here who had to clear and move their cars today so the apt parking lot could be cleared. This is the forecast for Nashua, NH, later today. 

BIG Thanks to blogger friends who have been posting about how things are going in their part of the country and the world.We read and appreciate your comments.

It's definitely a challenging time. Social connections are so vitalGrenville and I are doing OK in self-isolation. We hope you and your families are safe and well.


20 comments:

Edna B said...

YUp, we had snow too. However, it is gone today. Spring still has a chance to show up and stay. You have a wonderful day, and be safe. Hugs, Edna B.

robin andrea said...

The good thing about a spring snow is how quiet it is when it falls, how beautiful it is when it only lightly blankets the earth, and then melts away in the afternoon sunlight. You and Grenville stay safe and healthy there. Take care.

Laurie said...

Lots of snow here,, mountains of it, never put our trust in a rodent lol,, stay safe,

Tara said...

Here in Colorado we had a good snow the first day of spring, but it has mostly melted at this point, with sun and high 50s temps. I'm surprised that people still put their faith in a groundhog. I take the yearly ritual as purely entertainment.

Taking precautions here, self isolating. Staying in touch with people nevertheless. Wishing you well in your neck of the woods.

Anvilcloud said...

Our snow hasn't melted yet. It is 34F now and may rise to 43.

Linda said...

We will record high temps in the 90’s later this week in North Texas! I can’t even imagine! Our doors are open and everything is all green and growing so fast you can practically see it as it’s happening!

Social isolation is easier on some than it is on others. We are doing well as are our families. So far everyone is working and schooling from their homes. We have a group text to keep us in touch and send photos. Amber posts a photo every day to her instagram account and calls it Coronavirus Chronicles.

Our next door neighbor brought milk and left it on our porch yesterday......and she left a complete meal, too! I’d already made potato soup so we will have her meat loaf, corn, green beans and mashed potatoes for lunch today!

We will get through this! I sincerely pray it won’t last as long as some expect!
Take care of each other! I know you do!!

William Kendall said...

We got the snow yesterday too.

Sandra said...

we are doing the mid to high 80's here and praying for rain... the weather has taken a back seat to this crazy virus... in wait mode and doing ok but not liking it at all

Rain said...

Hi Dorothy :) Oh Phil...I forgive the little guy, he's under so much pressure lol. We got a dump of snow here too. I'm fed up to say the least! Things are good here, we're just continuing to pack and the deed will be signed next week! EEEEEEE! I'm so excited! :)

Billy Blue Eyes said...

I love the thought of a groundhog predicting weather, one of those little legends we all love. Mind you even our weather forecasters get it wrong. Back in 1986 Michael Fish from the met Office told us all there would not be any gales over the next day, we had a full scale hurricane that caused millions worth of damage. Poor bloke never lived it down

John "By Stargoose And Hanglands" said...

Even groundhogs are spreading fake news these days!

NCmountainwoman said...

When we lived in Wisconsin the weather people blamed their inaccurate predictions on Lake Michigan. And now in Appalachia they blame the inaccurate predictions on the mountains. Best way is to simply open the door and step out to see for oneself.

Rita said...

I guess I'm glad I still live where there are obvious seasonal changes no matter when they decide to arrive--LOL! Have a super week!! :)

Red said...

The ground hogs are fun , but only fun!

Nil @ The Little House by the Lake said...

Oh wow! I wish we had a bit cooler weather. It was around 80°F this afternoon.
Stay safe Beatrice and Grenville.

Jon said...

The snow looks lovely from your window - and at least it won't last long.
Here in the wilds of TN the weather is a roller coaster - warm one day and freezing the next. I'm looking forward to seeing some spring blossoms, but so far there are only weeds, bare trees,....and endless rain.

Valerie said...

Weather forecasting was always a mystery to me, but where I live the early blossom was a blessing. I wish the world was as pretty!

DeniseinVA said...

I think Phil is playing a little joke on you :) No snow here but it has been raining and it is 45 degrees outside. We're doing well in our self-isolation and the days seem to be going by very fast. I wonder how we will be in another four weeks????

bill burke said...

No snow here but some rain today. Yesterday we had sun and got out for a short walk. Only a few people but we can go for walks just have to keep 2 meters away from people. It's nice when you see only one or two so social distancing is not a problem. :) Glad to hear you guys are doing well.
Take care, stay safe!

Buttercup said...

We got the early spring in New York. Trees are blooming and beautiful. Lots of spring flowers, too. So grateful that the weather has been nice enough for walks outside at a prudent social distance. Take good care!